Stats of the Day

With spring training at an end, Opening Day has finally arrived. I'm looking at some stat lines from the Braves/Nats game last night, which was a great way to start the season in beautiful new Nationals Park (How long does that name last before the naming rights are sold? I'm setting the over/under at one year.) I don't think the ending of this game could've possibly been staged better...

According to Jim Bowden the new stadium will still be a slight pitcher's park. Mark Teixeira would agree after being robbed of a sure home run late in the game. Still, its dimensions point to a more neutral park and should be nowhere near as extreme as RFK Stadium, which ranked 27th overall in run scoring in 2007 and as the WORST home run park in the majors according to ESPN.

Washington	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Zimmerman, 3B	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	.250

Ryan Zimmerman, last night's hero with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth, has a very promising future. He was a top 3rd baseman in the National League in 2006 at only 21 years old. One only needs to look at other players who possessed the skills to be above-average at such a young age to see that Zimmerman has the potential to be a very special player. Some current players who were full-timers at 21 include Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, and Miguel Cabrera.

Now at the age of 23 Zimmerman continues his growth into an All-Star third baseman and has the potential to post better power numbers in his new park. For an idea of how much his power numbers could improve, consider that his walk-off home run would not have left the park last year at RFK.

Taking a look at Zimmerman's hit chart from RFK in 2007 there are at least a dozen doubles and fly outs that could be home runs in the new park. With his park on his side, don't be surprised if Zimmerman hits 30 homers this year.

Spring Stats of the Day

A double pitcher edition of Stats of the Day for Sunday. After tonight I'll be switching to regular season stats as we look towards opening day.

Kansas City	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Greinke	6.0	7	1	1	0	5	0	4.50

Zack Greinke's career was nearly derailed in 2006 as he dealt with anxiety issues. Missing an entire year can be a big bump in the road for a young players, but Greinke picked up where he left off last year and will continue his path to growing into a quality major league pitcher.

With over 450 innings of experience pitching in the majors Greinke should be ready to combine his skills with experience and take another step forward this year. Last year Zack posted a career-high strikeout rate and and career-low ERA. He makes an excellent target for 150+ strikeouts, an ERA under 4.00, and possibly 15 wins in front of an improved Royals lineup.

Cleveland	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Westbrook	4.0	2	0	0	1	4	0	0.00

Jake Westbrook has had a perfect spring, giving up no runs in 18 innings and only giving up 7 hits. In those 18 innings he has posted 20 Ks and exhibited excellent control with only 5 BBs.

So what has gotten into Westbrook? There has been talk that at the end of last year that he added a new pitch which boosted his strikeout numbers, shown both this spring and last September when he struck out 31 batters in 37 innings. Westbrook is already a groundball pitcher, so if he can increase his strikeouts and rely less on a defense with plodders like Jhonny Peralta at SS he could be headed for a surprise year.

If this increase in strikeout is for real, expect Westbrook to have his best year since 2004 in front of a very good bullpen and offense. This is a sleeper you definitely want to take a shot on and he is owned in very few leagues.

Spring Stats of the Day

LA Dodgers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Billingsley	5.0	2	1	1	3	7	0	6.85

Chad Billingsley has been one of the names talked about this spring as a breakout candidate. He is being drafted in some mixed leagues as early as round 10, but how confident should we really be in his ability to post a breakout season?

Billingsley is a young pitcher still in his growth years. This will be his age 23 season and only his 2nd full year in the majors. Last year he transitioned from the bullpen to starting rotation, starting 20 games and pitching 147 innings. He posted a 3.31 ERA and 141 strikeouts, excellent numbers for sure. However, the real concern here is his control and a jump in major league innings. His BB/9 (walks per 9 innings) was 3.9 and he went from 90 innings in 2006 to 147 in 2007, not including the minor leagues.

Billingsley tends to take a lot of pitches to get through games, often reaching the 100 pitch mark by the 6th inning. Leaving the game in the 6th inning is going to result in less wins as he leaves the 7th through 9th up to the bullpen, although with Broxton and Saito this might be less of a concern. Overall, while Billingsley has posted good ERA and strikeouts, he is still a risk to have low win totals and a high WHIP. At only 23 years old he likely needs more time to straighten out his control issues and become a more efficient pitcher to experience a true breakout.

Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Hill, 2B	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	.432

Aaron Hill is still flying under the radar in many leagues even though he hit .291/.336/.459 with 17 HRs and 78 RBIs in 2007, great numbers for late round 2nd baseman. In his age 26 season he looks to improve on those numbers hitting behind Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas in the 6th slot.

Hill's power continues to surge in Florida this spring, where he is slugging .659. In 2008 he is capable of hitting up to 20 HR with a .300 average and even more RBIs this year. He won't be giving you the speed of more popular second basemen, but if you miss out on more hyped guys like Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks, look to Aaron Hill. He's likely to give you more power and RBIs than either of them at a much better price.

Spring Stats of the Day

Extra Reading
For some additional reading today, here's a good article that was shared with me yesterday on the subject of spring strikeout numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/spring-training-and-strikeouts/

Two different players from the same team with similar spring stats

Name R Weeks

Team MIL

BB 4

K 25

OBP .313

SLG .446

AVG .214

C Hart

MIL

3

24

.265

.453

.234

Most people know Rickie Weeks as a player with 20/20 upside, but a serious risk in batting average. Weeks hit just .235 last year and has averaged about 1 strikeout per game in his career. Luckily he also walks at a high rate, giving him plenty of opportunities to steal bases and score runs. Corey Hart is a player also capable of a 20/20 year, but one whom most expect to continue hitting over .280 due to decent contact skills in the past.

So why is Cory Hart striking out as much as Rickie Weeks? Brewers manager Ned Yost offers some perspective at MLB.com:

The Brewers plan to use Corey Hart as the primary right fielder, but he led the club with 18 strikeouts this spring versus just one home run. Many of Hart's strikeouts were called, Yost noticed.

"He's not seeing the ball too good. [He] is thinking too much," said Yost, who insisted he's not concerned. "His history has been ... that he's really struggled at first and then really taken off."

Given Hart's history in the majors, I think this is just him getting into shape for the season. He has had short stints in his career where his strikeouts jumped up, but he was able to maintain a good level of production at those times. If most of his strikeouts are called this could simply be a spring umpiring issue as well. This shouldn't be a a concern heading into the season for Hart owners.

Cleveland's Closer in Waiting?

Cleveland	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Kobayashi (H, 5)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2.70

Nothing eye catching here, but Masahide Kobayashi is a player worth noting. Joe Borowski wasn't as bad as we all thought last year. In fact, without 2 early season meltdowns where he gave up a total of 10 runs in 1.1 innings to the Yankees and Athletics his ERA would have been a full run lower. Still, many people feel he is a shaky option in the Cleveland bullpen and draft Rafael Betancourt as a possible saves vulture. Betancourt is certainly a valuable pitcher to own, but Cleveland management prefers to keep him in a more versatile role where he can pitch higher leverage innings and not be relegated to merely 9th inning duties.

If you are looking for a hedge for saves in Cleveland you might be better off taking a look at Kobayashi, who saved 277 games in his career in Japan.

Spring Stats of the Day

In the first of a hopefully daily column I'm reviewing stories and stats of note from the day's games. I hope to continue this into the regular season as well. On with the numbers...

Seattle	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR
Bedard (W, 2-2)	6.0	5	4	4	3	2	2

By all accounts Erik Bedard is having a terrible spring. Is this cause for concern? His command has been spotty with 10/8 K/BB and 9 HRs allowed. Home runs have never been a problem for Bedard, even while pitching in the AL East, so this should not be a concern in Seattle. His strikeout rate is also down this spring. This is Bedard's first time pitching in Arizona and he is adjusting to a new team, so these stats are not something to be concerned about as long as he is healthy. There has been no talk of possible injury to Bedard this offseason, though there was a large hold-up in trade talks due to player physicals, so it is something to keep in mind. For now, write these stats off as Bedard has been relatively healthy the past 2 years aside from his oblique injury at the end of last season. If this performance continues into the year then Bedard may be hiding an injury which could put his potential Cy Young season in jeopardy. His first few starts of the season will be very telling.

Arizona	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG

Snyder, C	3	2	3	2	2	0	0	.390

Chris Snyder continues to kill the ball this spring, reaching base in all 5 plate appearances today. He is the top slugging player this spring with a line of .390/.479/.878 in 41 ABs. Seemingly an afterthought before this spring, Miguel Montero's finger injury has thrown Snyder into a full-time role and he is projected to bat cleanup in a good NL lineup. Catchers generally take longer to develop offensively than other players and Snyder is in his age 27 season. A hot spring, reasonable strikeout rates, and emerging power make Snyder a player to watch with some serious RBI potential if he can stick in the cleanup spot all year.

Spring Impressions

What better way to start off a new blog than a new baseball season. Today I am going to start off with some spring impressions on players that could make an impact this year.

We always learn to discount spring stats, but something I noticed last year was a high K-rate in spring and a high command (K/BB) could be good indicators for an improved season. Looking at 2007's Spring Strikeout Leaders (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/springLeaders?year=2007&category=pitks) there are some names we can recognize:

Name                           K
James Shields, TAM             30
Rich Harden, OAK               29
Jake Peavy, SDG                27
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS         26
Ian Snell, PIT                 24
Josh Beckett, BOS              24
Boof Bonser, MIN               24
Erik Bedard, BAL               24
Josh Towers, TOR               23
Adam Loewen, BAL               23
Chan Ho Park, NYM              23
Tom Gorzelanny, PIT            23
Daniel Cabrera, BAL            23
Kei Igawa, NYY                 22
Johan Santana, MIN             22
Kip Wells, STL                 22
Aaron Harang, CIN              22
Jamie Moyer, PHI               22

A few of these guys took big steps forward last year, so maybe there is something to the spring strikeout. Now a look at some of this year's spring strikeout leaders courtesy of MLB.com.

				Name J Maine		Team NYM																																BB 5	K 28
				E Volquez		CIN																																4	26
				K Slowey		MIN																																5	22
				J Vazquez		CWS																																4	22
				J Peavy		SD																																7	21
				J Sanchez		SF																																10	21
				J Santana		NYM																																3	21
				E Santana		LAA																																6	20
				M Batista		SEA																																9	19
				D Bush		MIL																																8	19
				J Litsch		TOR																																5	19
				M Parra		MIL																																10	19

A few names pop out to me here. I'll focus on the young guys with a potential to take a step forward this year.

First, John Maine. He had a great start last year with a 2.71 ERA before the All-Star break. Maine ended up with a 3.91 ERA due to a poor second half, but that is something we can attribute to him tiring after large jump in major league innings. Maine can step up this year to be the Mets' number 2 starter and should be targeted as such; his increasing strikeout rates are a very good sign and 20 wins is not out of the question.

Edinson Volquez is another pitcher whose spring numbers jump out. Volquez has been troubled by control issues in the past and is prone to the home run ball... something that can only get worse with a move from Texas to Cincinnatti. However, putting up a 26/4 K/BB ratio shows he has taken a step forward with his control. Surprisingly, he has also given up no home runs all spring. Volquez is definitely someone to keep an eye on in mixed leagues. He may end up with a poor home ERA because of the ballpark, but he should at least prove useful in spot starts on the road and maybe more as the season goes on.

Currently slated for the 5th spot in Minnesota's rotation, Kevin Slowey is a pitcher with a history of exceptional command in the minors, drawing comparisons to Brad Radke. In 354 minor league innings he struck out 342 batters and walked only 48. In a June call-up last year, his first stint in the majors, he pitched 36 innings, struck out 19, and walked 9. Not a terrible debut until you see he gave up 13 home-runs, over 3 per 9 innings... utterly insane. He was called up again in September and displayed his dominant command with a 28/2 K/BB ratio in 29 innings. He has continued that trend this spring and between September and March he has pitched 50 innings and given up 6 home-runs. He still likely has a few things to figure out, but he could be a useful major league pitcher sometime this year.

Likely to come away with the 5th spot in San Francisco, Jonathan Sanchez has shown a ton of strikeout potential with only spotty control. In 52 innings last year with the Giants he posted a 62/28 K/BB ratio in 52 innings. So far this spring he has posted similar strikeout and walk rates. Although he is still racking up Ks, there are no signs of growth here. I wouldn't recommend Sanchez as a player to roster until he can get his control together. Once he can do that he could become a great pitcher to target in a good park, but that may still be a year away.

Ervin Santana is a young pitcher with an odd set of splits. For his career, Big Erv has a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home, but a 7.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road. Last year it finally blew up in his face, resulting in a stint in the minors. Santana and his manager Mike Scioscia have attributed this to Ervin's inability to repeat his mechanics, something he has learned from in the past year. If this increased command of the strike zone is a sign of improved mechanics we could be seeing a pitcher who puts up the excellent home numbers when he is on the road as well. This talk may just be spring training noise, but it's something I am paying attention to. Don't expect a breakout with this guy, but he is worth a gamble in case he does figure things out. Give him a few starts on the road before using him. At worst, you can always pick him up during the year for a few home starts.

With the release of Claudio Vargas by the Brewers Manny Parra has locked up a spot in the rotation, at least until Gallardo returns. If Parra does well he could stick in the rotation for the season, possibly being shut down at the end of the year due to a potentially large innings increase. Parra could be the highest upside pitcher on this list and is a definite target in keeper leagues if he hasn't already been scooped up. For those in mixed leagues he is still worth a flyer. Manny has posted consistently high strikeout rates, good control, and rarely gives up a home run. There are really no major deficiencies in his skillset like most other young pitchers. The real issue with Parra is a history of arm troubles and minimal major league experience. Parra's skills make him a prime target, but his big league inexperience should temper your expectations. A regression from last year's 3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings should be expected as he teams see more of him and he fatigues over the year.