Monday, April 21, 2008

Stats of the Day: Ranting at Ned Yost

I'm starting off the week with a rant. There are plenty of topics this week to write about, like the Phillies' mishandling of Jimmy Rollins' injury situation, but I'm going to talk about an even dumber move than that: Pitching a reliever with a reconstructed elbow four days in a row.

MilwaukeeIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Gagne (BS, 3)(L, 1-1)0.02331028.22

Say what you want about Eric Gagne's three blown saves this year, but he had just come off of pitching three consecutive days, putting up scoreless outings in each appearance. Gagne had been cruising along and the Brewers were actually unbeaten in every game he appeared in before Sunday.

That was until Ned Yost stepped in. While the Brewers' bullpen isn't full of great options, both Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres have been pitching well enough to warrant a save chance in the event of a fatigued Gagne. Instead, Yost chose to march Gagne out to the firing squad. On Sunday Gagne's fastball topped out at 91 mph, down from his usual velocity this year of 94 to 95 mph. He was obviously fatigued and quickly served up two homers.

One positive note to take from this outing is that Yost may have so little trust in the rest of his bullpen that Gagne is not losing this job anytime soon. The negative is that if Yost has no conscience of Gagne's past health issues then he may be visiting the trainer's table again this season.

In preparing this blog I tried looking into other good closer's stats when pitching for the fourth day in a row. The funny thing is, I couldn't find them. Very few managers send their guys out without a break and it is something to worry about if Yost hasn't already learned his lesson. Keep an eye on his usage of Gagne for warnings signs he may end up breaking down this year.

OaklandABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Crosby, SS4131110.313

Former rookie of the year in 2004 and Peter Gammons' pick for the 2006 AL MVP, Bobby Crosby has had an up-and-down career filled with injuries. Currently he is batting .313/.368/.475 with excellent contact and walk rates. It appears Crosby is both seeing and hitting the ball very well.

Crosby hasn't shown enough consistency or even health in the past to determine if this is something he can keep up, but scouts have always been high on his skills and potential. There just aren't many stats to go on with him being unable to reach 100 games played in any year after 2004. Still, I believe he is worth a pickup right now in just about any league if you are in need of a SS or MI. He appears to be healthy and if he can stay that way all year he could be a real surprise.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Stats of the Day: Extra, Extra Innings

This morning's (yes, it did in fact last past 4AM EST) game between the Padres and Rockies was the longest since 1993. I would be remiss to not look at a few of the line scores from this one, but what can we gather from 22 innings of play?

ColoradoABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Helton, 1B9010102.242

San DiegoABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Giles, RF9010003.298
Bard, C9021004.292

Todd Helton, Brian Giles, and Josh Bard were the only players to stay for the duration of the game and not strikeout one time. How do you make contact with the ball nine times and only get one hit, in Helton and Giles' case? They certainly aren't hitting the ball with authority as they did in years past, but Petco Park didn't help their cases.

What does this say about Josh Bard to be lumped into the same group with two very good veteran hitters? Well, he isn't going to hit you any home runs or steal any bases, but a catcher making this kind of contact can only help your team when many others are struggling to stay above .250. If you need a slight batting average boost and don't mind sacrificing the minimal numbers most catchers may give you anyway, Bard is not a bad pickup.

WashingtonIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Lannan 6.031101104.86

I'll be honest, before reading this box score I had no idea who John Lannan was. Turns out he's a 23 year old lefty pitching for the Washington Nationals who managed to strike out eleven Mets last night.

Lannan had mostly middling stuff last night with a fastball in the mid to upper 80's and a curve clocking in around 70 mph. He was obviously in good control of the strike zone though, not walking any batters. Lannan had an amazing path to the majors last year, going from high-A, to double-A, to triple-A, then finally debuting in the majors in August.

He had a phenomenal game last night, but it's hard to get excited about a pitcher who debuted last year in A ball, where he only struck out 35 batters in 50 innings. If you are the one person in the world who picked Lannan up for this start, buy a lottery ticket. Everyone else should probably let him hang on the waiver-wire until he proves he can do this again.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Stats of the Day: Cleveland Stinker

Sorry for the horrible pun in today's title. You know you still laughed.

ClevelandIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Sabathia (L, 0-3)4.089951213.50

C.C. Sabathia has actually gotten worse in each of his starts this year, never a good sign for a pitcher and often foretelling of an injury. Since his Opening Day start against the White Sox where he struck out 7 and walked 3, Sabathia has a K/BB ratio of 7/11. He has also given up 5 homers in 18 innings, but only gave up 20 all of last year. The most shocking stat of all: in four starts this year, Sabathia has already allowed one-third as many earned runs as he did in 2007. Even if he stays lights-out for the rest of the year, he is nearly guaranteed of an ERA over 4.00.

Looking at the start last night on MLB.com Gameday, CC's velocity seems ok, but some pitches are missing the plate by a large margin. Part of his awful fifth inning was also him facing the heart of the lineup with a few ABs at or near ten pitches. That will take its toll on any pitcher. Still, it looks like Sabathia doesn't quite have his control together and has not shown any improvement there. He could still bring things together come May, but I would personally be sitting him for a few starts until he can start striking people out again.

TexasABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Blalock, 3B5120006.302

Hank Blalock left yesterday's game with a sore back and could be heading to the DL. This is bad news for Blalock owners who were enjoying his good production.

Blalock got off to a great start in the second half last year after recovering from shoulder surgery and so far this season he has kept up that pace. In 53 ABs he has only 5 strikeouts to 7 walks, excellent contact numbers which make him a legit .300 hitter. His career average is only .274, but Blalock is now 27 years old and has evidently made some strides towards becoming a better hitter. He still hasn't hit lefties well this year (.188 in 16 ABs), but his mashing of right handers has more than made up for that (.351 in 37 ABs.) Especially encouraging is that Blalock, long thought to be a product of Arlington, is hitting .300 both at home and on the road.

He probably won't match his 2005 season when he hit 32 home runs, but Blalock could be very useful in Texas if he manages to hit around .300 with 20+ homers in the launchpad of Arlington. Back issues can sometimes cripple power hitters, so hopefully this turns out to be something minor that won't have him out for long.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Stats of the Day: Jackson Cleaning Up

On the injury front, Alfonso Soriano left yesterday's with a calf strain. If he misses any significant time Matt Murton will be called up and could be productive out of the gate. Last year in the second half over 116 ABs Murton hit .310/.375/.543 with 7 homers. Definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

ArizonaABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Jackson, 1B4123101.333

Conor Jackson continues to develop as a hitter and has gotten off to a good start this season. Although he has topped out at 15 home runs in both his prior seasons, he did so in only 415 ABs last year. This year Jackson is thriving in the cleanup spot and looks to get over 500 ABs. As a full time player expect him to put up career numbers. Up to 20 homers and a near .300 average are within reach.

San DiegoIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Wolf (W, 1-0)7.01004901.42

Randy Wolf has shown the skills to succeed in the past, but injuries and inconsistency have managed to catch up with him in recent years. With both elbow and shoulder surgeries over the past two years he certainly isn't without risk. However, a pitcher with the ability to strike people out (94 Ks in 102 innings last year) in the best home park in the majors is someone worth hanging onto.

I would expect Wolf to deal with some injuries as the year goes on, but now is the time to jump on the bandwagon until something goes wrong. Every start Wolf can give you is money in the bank at this point because he was so undervalued early this season.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Stats of the Day: Keeping the Pirates at Bay

Joe Borowski heads to the DL today, opening up speculation on the new closer in Cleveland. This has been a topic of discussion all season. If Rafael Betancourt continues his early season struggles, take a look at Masa Kobayashi or Jorge Julio.

PittsburghABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Bay, LF5000034.250

Jason Bay continues his on-again/off-again season, striking out three times yesterday. While his contact hasn't been great (striking out about 30% of the time), he has thrived in the past while striking near this rate. The key to Bay's success while striking out this much is his ability to hit the ball hard.

So far this season, Bay has 11 hits with a double and 3 home runs. He isn't exactly mashing the ball, but he is hitting for some power. Last year in April and May he hit .310 with 8 home runs only to slump through the remainder of the season, ending up with a .247 average. The only apparent reason for his abysmal production was a bad knee that was limiting him at the plate and in the field.

Bay did undergo knee surgery in the offseason so if he is healthy again he could produce close to 2005. The steals aren't going to be coming back, so don't expect double digits there. Still, Bay could hit above .275 with 25 home runs. Good production, but not what many expected from Bay before his terrible 2007. Don't expect much more than that and accept his streakiness and you won't be entirely disappointed by Jason Bay.


DetroitIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Bonderman 6.18742504.58

Jeremy Bonderman was a very popular breakout target and was drafted in early rounds last year after striking out 202 batters in 2006. So far this year he has only struck out 8 batters while walking 8 in 17 innings.

Bonderman had his season derailed last year by an elbow injury and had soreness in it through spring. It looks like whatever was ailing him in his elbow is still present as evidenced by the spotty control. While Bonderman still has the potential to be an ace with such elite strikeout numbers in the past, this may be potential that goes forever wasted. Expect a DL stint in his future if he doesn't start striking more people out.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Stats of the Day: Spittin' Blood

This week has the Orioles, White Sox, and Athletics sitting atop the AL. Three teams that will likely be contending for last place in their respective divisions. Remember, even two weeks in, the season is indeed still young.

Tampa BayIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Reyes (W, 1-1)0.200000010.80

Al Reyes had a busy week celebrating his birthday, getting tazed at a bar for spitting blood at patrons, then picking up a win the next night in relief.

Reyes had a serviceable year in 2007 and could still be in line for closer duties should Troy Percival falter. Both Reyes and Percival are 38 years old, so a younger and safer option may be Dan Wheeler if you are hunting for saves down the road.

Wheeler still has some upside and a good track record in the majors, but at this point the days of Danys Baez's teal uniformed dominance are over. Just take what you can get from the Rays' pen and don't go hurting your ERA and WHIP rostering these guys unless you are desperate.

ArizonaABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Snyder, C4231102.194

Chris Snyder entered the weekend with two hits and managed to triple his total by the end of Sunday's game. Snyder definitely needed to start producing as talk of Miguel Montero returning is intensifying and he hopes to hold the starting job as long as possible. Three of the four hits this weekend were doubles and as long as Snyder is hitting the ball hard he will be capable of producing. It also doesn't hurt that the Diamondbacks are red hot and their starting pitchers have been excellent so far.

I still think Snyder is a good option heading forward, especially compared to most other catchers available on the waiver-wire in a two catcher league. Hopefully this weekend will present a a fresh start to the season. At the very least, both the D'Backs and fantasy owners have to be excited that this meager bit of production actually has Snyder outhitting Robinson Cano.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Stats of the Day: Cubs Win Again

Chi CubsABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Soto, C5142000.333

The Cubs won their fifth straight game yesterday with the help of Geovany Soto, who hit two doubles and a two-run homer. Soto was never a highly regarded prospect until last year when he hit .353 in AAA Iowa and then .389 in 54 ABs during his big league call-up. That was all it took for the Cubs needed, looking for a replacement for Michael Barret, to name him the starter this year.

As of right now this looks like a good decision, but the odd thing here is the lack of a track record. Soto has only hit like this in the past year, and only for a month or two's worth of ABs in the majors. While he has hit well enough to convince many people he is for real, there is still some reason for caution in case he enters a slump, which we haven't really seen from him yet. It might be time to sell high on Soto if you can get a high impact player in the deal.

OaklandIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Eveland 6.13003600.68

Dana Eveland turned in his second great start of the year in Toronto, not the easiest of parks to pitch in. Part of the Dan Haren deal to the Diamondbacks, Eveland seems to be the player most likely to pay dividends now. In both starts Eveland has struck out a batter per inning and kept his walks in check.

In his other short stints in the majors Eveland has walked over 5 batters per 9 innings while striking out over 8. However, his minor league numbers point to better control as he walked half that number and struck out even more in 413 innings.

Eveland has the skills to succeed in the majors in an excellent pitcher's park and in front of a good defense. He's definitely worth a pickup in any league.