Spring Impressions

What better way to start off a new blog than a new baseball season. Today I am going to start off with some spring impressions on players that could make an impact this year.

We always learn to discount spring stats, but something I noticed last year was a high K-rate in spring and a high command (K/BB) could be good indicators for an improved season. Looking at 2007's Spring Strikeout Leaders (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/springLeaders?year=2007&category=pitks) there are some names we can recognize:

Name                           K
James Shields, TAM             30
Rich Harden, OAK               29
Jake Peavy, SDG                27
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS         26
Ian Snell, PIT                 24
Josh Beckett, BOS              24
Boof Bonser, MIN               24
Erik Bedard, BAL               24
Josh Towers, TOR               23
Adam Loewen, BAL               23
Chan Ho Park, NYM              23
Tom Gorzelanny, PIT            23
Daniel Cabrera, BAL            23
Kei Igawa, NYY                 22
Johan Santana, MIN             22
Kip Wells, STL                 22
Aaron Harang, CIN              22
Jamie Moyer, PHI               22

A few of these guys took big steps forward last year, so maybe there is something to the spring strikeout. Now a look at some of this year's spring strikeout leaders courtesy of MLB.com.

				Name J Maine		Team NYM																																BB 5	K 28
				E Volquez		CIN																																4	26
				K Slowey		MIN																																5	22
				J Vazquez		CWS																																4	22
				J Peavy		SD																																7	21
				J Sanchez		SF																																10	21
				J Santana		NYM																																3	21
				E Santana		LAA																																6	20
				M Batista		SEA																																9	19
				D Bush		MIL																																8	19
				J Litsch		TOR																																5	19
				M Parra		MIL																																10	19

A few names pop out to me here. I'll focus on the young guys with a potential to take a step forward this year.

First, John Maine. He had a great start last year with a 2.71 ERA before the All-Star break. Maine ended up with a 3.91 ERA due to a poor second half, but that is something we can attribute to him tiring after large jump in major league innings. Maine can step up this year to be the Mets' number 2 starter and should be targeted as such; his increasing strikeout rates are a very good sign and 20 wins is not out of the question.

Edinson Volquez is another pitcher whose spring numbers jump out. Volquez has been troubled by control issues in the past and is prone to the home run ball... something that can only get worse with a move from Texas to Cincinnatti. However, putting up a 26/4 K/BB ratio shows he has taken a step forward with his control. Surprisingly, he has also given up no home runs all spring. Volquez is definitely someone to keep an eye on in mixed leagues. He may end up with a poor home ERA because of the ballpark, but he should at least prove useful in spot starts on the road and maybe more as the season goes on.

Currently slated for the 5th spot in Minnesota's rotation, Kevin Slowey is a pitcher with a history of exceptional command in the minors, drawing comparisons to Brad Radke. In 354 minor league innings he struck out 342 batters and walked only 48. In a June call-up last year, his first stint in the majors, he pitched 36 innings, struck out 19, and walked 9. Not a terrible debut until you see he gave up 13 home-runs, over 3 per 9 innings... utterly insane. He was called up again in September and displayed his dominant command with a 28/2 K/BB ratio in 29 innings. He has continued that trend this spring and between September and March he has pitched 50 innings and given up 6 home-runs. He still likely has a few things to figure out, but he could be a useful major league pitcher sometime this year.

Likely to come away with the 5th spot in San Francisco, Jonathan Sanchez has shown a ton of strikeout potential with only spotty control. In 52 innings last year with the Giants he posted a 62/28 K/BB ratio in 52 innings. So far this spring he has posted similar strikeout and walk rates. Although he is still racking up Ks, there are no signs of growth here. I wouldn't recommend Sanchez as a player to roster until he can get his control together. Once he can do that he could become a great pitcher to target in a good park, but that may still be a year away.

Ervin Santana is a young pitcher with an odd set of splits. For his career, Big Erv has a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home, but a 7.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road. Last year it finally blew up in his face, resulting in a stint in the minors. Santana and his manager Mike Scioscia have attributed this to Ervin's inability to repeat his mechanics, something he has learned from in the past year. If this increased command of the strike zone is a sign of improved mechanics we could be seeing a pitcher who puts up the excellent home numbers when he is on the road as well. This talk may just be spring training noise, but it's something I am paying attention to. Don't expect a breakout with this guy, but he is worth a gamble in case he does figure things out. Give him a few starts on the road before using him. At worst, you can always pick him up during the year for a few home starts.

With the release of Claudio Vargas by the Brewers Manny Parra has locked up a spot in the rotation, at least until Gallardo returns. If Parra does well he could stick in the rotation for the season, possibly being shut down at the end of the year due to a potentially large innings increase. Parra could be the highest upside pitcher on this list and is a definite target in keeper leagues if he hasn't already been scooped up. For those in mixed leagues he is still worth a flyer. Manny has posted consistently high strikeout rates, good control, and rarely gives up a home run. There are really no major deficiencies in his skillset like most other young pitchers. The real issue with Parra is a history of arm troubles and minimal major league experience. Parra's skills make him a prime target, but his big league inexperience should temper your expectations. A regression from last year's 3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings should be expected as he teams see more of him and he fatigues over the year.