Stats of the Day: The Freakin' Royals!?

First place, 1000 runs scored, 2008 World Series Champions. All of this has been said about the 2008 Tigers, but the Royals don't seem to be interested. For the second game in a row the Royals beat the Tigers, keeping their offense in check and exposing their pitching.

The Tigers lost a valuable piece of their offense in leadoff man Curtis Granderson to a finger injury this spring. Granderson is a dynamic part of that offense and is obviously sorely missed. The Tigers are having to experiment with their lineup until he returns and the results haven't been great.

Kansas City	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Bannister (W, 1-0)	7.0	2	0	0	0	4	0	0.00

Detroit	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Renteria, SS	4	0	3	0	0	0	0	.444

You know there's something wrong with your offense when Brian Bannister, he of a feeble 77 strikeouts in 165 innings in 2007, shuts you down. There is nothing in Bannister's skillset to evidence his ability to do this consistently and last year he was just as likely to give up four or more runs in an outing as he was to turn in a quality start. He's not a bad gamble against a poor offense, but not someone I would be rostering in a mixed league. (Edit: Check out a great article by Jeff Passan on Bannister's strategy in using stats to his advantage)

Edgar Renteria was the Tiger's lone savior, but his three hits weren't going far without him stealing second, third, and home on his own. I am still skeptical of Edgar's ability to adjust to the AL after his struggles with the Red Sox and his comments that he was not able to adapt to the AL style of pitching. He is leading off for a great offense until Granderson returns, which gives him great value for the time. I wouldn't hesitate to sell high on this performance, though.

Washington	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Redding (W, 1-0)	7.0	1	0	0	3	2	0	0.00

Don't be encouraged by Tim Redding's performance here against the Phillies, no matter how impressive it may seem. This is a 30 year old journey-man minor league pitcher, not a major league caliber starter. For his career Redding has pitched 892 minor league innings against only 520 major league innings.

In his minor league career Redding has struck out over one batter per inning, but that ability has never translated over to the majors and at this stage in his career there is little hope of that happening. Allowing one hit to an excellent Phillies offense in their tiny ballpark is certainly an impressive feat, but expect Redding and the Nats to cool off as the summer heats up.

Cincinnati	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Keppinger, SS	3	1	3	0	1	0	0	.429

Filling in while Alex Gonzalez recovers from a knee fracture, Jeff Keppinger has started out hot this season starting with a tremendous spring. At 27, Keppinger is not exactly an emerging rookie, but in 2154 minor league ABs he has struck out only 139 times. That is some flat out amazing contact ability.

Keppinger has never shown much power or speed, hitting only 23 home runs and stealing 27 bases in his entire minor league career. However, he is currently batting second in the Reds' lineup and should be picking up plenty of hits to score and drive in runs. You could definitely do a lot worse for your MI spot and he is a good target to pickup if you're hurting for batting average.

San Diego	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Barrett, C	3	3	2	0	1	0	1	.667

Catcher controversy in San Diego? Michael Barrett is only a year removed from hitting .307 with 16 home runs in Chicago. After being booted out unceremoniously following some bickering with Carlos Zambrano, Barrett ended up in San Diego as a backup to Josh Bard.

It's easy to see how al this drama may have derailed Barrett's 2007 season. If he continues to hit he could steal playing time from Bard and be an excellent offensive option at catcher. Unfortunately to realize his true value he will probably need an injury to Bard or a trade, but this is a guy to keep an eye on. Not many waiver wire catchers are going to actually help your batting average and I can practically guarantee he is available in nearly all mixed leagues.

Stats of the Day: Golden Sombrero

I'm opening the blog today with the most dominant and most feeble performances of this young season. Coincidentally, (not ironically) they happened in the same game.

Boston	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Matsuzaka (W, 1-0)	6.2	2	1	1	0	9	1	2.31

Oakland	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Buck, RF	4	0	0	0	0	4	0	.000

Daisuke Matsuzaka is still working on increasing his pitch efficiency to go deeper into games, topping out at 96 pitches in this one. Daisuke was actually one of the most abused pitchers last year, with 17 starts coming in at over 100 pitches.

What all of this doesn't change is his ability to be completely dominant in a game. He did give up his second home run of the year, but that was the only damage done in this match as he racked up 9 strikeouts and mixed in five pitches from the onset of the game, keeping hitters off balance. He did not throw his changeup often and only once for a strike, but he had good control of everything else.

Don't expect Daisuke to be throwing two-hitters all season, but as he works to increase his efficiency we could see his numbers take a positive jump this year.

Travis Buck just came to watch the show. Possibly inflating Daisuke's numbers, Travis Buck struck out swinging three times against Matsuzaka and once against Jonathan Papelbon. He is currently in an 0 for 14 slump with 7 strikeouts to start the season.

Buck did offer some promise when he put up a line of .288/.377/.474 in 285 ABs last year, but he is not worth waiting on right now as he obviously has some things to figure out to start the season. He has displayed good enough skills in the past that he should rebound as the year goes on to put up respectable numbers, but the Oakland A's just aren't going to score many runs.

LA Dodgers	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Furcal, SS	5	1	2	2	0	1	1	.556

Rafael Furcal managed to fly a bit under the radar this spring, coming off a down year. Many remain down on him to this day, with ESPN projecting him for basically a repeat of last year. However, this is a guy who stole 37 bases and hit .300 with 15 home runs in 2006 and suffered some ankle problems that derailed him last year.

Furcal had a solid spring where he hit .373/.422/.675 that he has continued into the regular season with five hits in only nine ABs. Those who drafted Furcal saw this season as a continuation of 2006 rather than a continued decline. Still only 31 years old, Furcal is in his peak years and looks to greatly reward owners who had faith in him.

Drafted in the 6th round or later in most mixed leagues, Furcal could easily be the 4th best shortstop by the end of the year. He will be leading off for an improved Dodgers offense without Juan Pierre's feeble bat behind him if Joe Torre continues sticking Pierre at the back of the order.

Stats of the Day

Happy opening day! It was definitely a wild one and anyone watching could tell you the big theme of the day: closer breakdowns. Let's take a look at the bigger imposions of the day.

Philadelphia	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Gordon (L, 0-1)	0.1	4	5	5	1	0	0	135.00

Tom Gordon is filling in with the 9th inning duties until Brad Lidge's projected return on Saturday. Anyone gambling with Gordon for a few cheap saves already knew what they were risking, but I don't think anybody expected this in the first game of the season.

Gordon was sidelined last year with shoulder issues and while he was reported to have recovered fully over the spring, an 88 mph fastball and 86mph changeup isn't going to throw hitters off very much.

If you were even considering holding onto Gordon, erase the thought from your head immediately. There is no reason to be risking your ERA and WHIP For an entire month simply to pick up one or two saves.

Pittsburgh	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Capps	0.2	2	3	3	2	0	0	40.50

Matt Capps emerged as one of the better closers in the league last year. He displayed excellent skills throughout the year and had good spring numbers as well. I don't see any warning signs here that could indicate something is wrong, his control simply wasn't there initially and Jason Bay made a poor defensive play that turned an out into an RBI single. Going 0 for 6 and botching plays in the field isn't the fastest way out of Pittsburgh, Mr. Bay.

Simply discount this outing from Capps as he should continue to be an excellent closer. His save totals might not be there in the end as the Pirates consider trading away more talent if they don't see any hope for this season. His other numbers, however, should be among the top for all closers.

Chi Cubs	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Wood	1.0	2	3	3	1	1	0	27.00

This ninth inning was one for the ages, with Kerry Wood entering a scoreless game only to hit a batter, intentionally walk another, and then give up 2 hits before finally ending the inning. Woods velocity was very good in this out, but as was the case with other closers on Opening Day, his control was not. He threw 21 pitches total, 12 for strikes.

Bob Howry ended up losing the game for the Cubs, while Carlos Marmol put up three strikeouts in just over an inning. This is a situation to keep an eye on, as it was all spring, but if Wood can rebound he has the skills to be an effective closer this season.

One aspect of closing that is often underrated by statheads is the "closer mentality" needed to come into the 9th inning with the game on the line and excel. This was not a save situation, and Wood even admitted his adrenaline was not there. As Wood gains more experience in this role and learns to harness the adrenaline needed to succeed he should succeed. If he can't figure that out, there are plenty of other options in the Cubs bullpen.

Milwaukee	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Gagne (BS, 1)(W, 1-0)	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	27.00

Eric Gagne, unlike Wood, has years of experience as a closer and a Cy Young under his belt. After 2 injury plagued seasons Gagne returns last year for a full workload. He put up excellent strikeout numbers last year, but also seemed hittable at times, especially for the Red Sox where he gave up 26 hits in 18.1 innings.

Gagne has spoken about his comfort level in the ninth inning and his ability to succeed there. Unlike Wood, Gagne appears to thrive on the adrenaline that comes when a game is on the line. Even though his skills aren't what they used to be and he certainly has effective enough stuff to close out games.

The problem in yesterday's outing was his inability to spot his fastball, a basic yet vital skill for a pitcher. Gagne gave up two hits and a walk on his fastball, including Kosuke Fukudome's home run. He did rebound to retire 3 of the next 4 batters, mostly with changeups and breaking balls.

Whether or not Gagne will regain his control remains a question mark as control problems are always an issue when past elbow injuries are involved. There are promising signs here, but it's not a bad idea to take a flyer on Guillermo Mota or David Riske if things don't work out.

Update 11:46AM: An article here notes that muddiness might have contributed to Gagne and Wood's spotty control

Stats of the Day

With spring training at an end, Opening Day has finally arrived. I'm looking at some stat lines from the Braves/Nats game last night, which was a great way to start the season in beautiful new Nationals Park (How long does that name last before the naming rights are sold? I'm setting the over/under at one year.) I don't think the ending of this game could've possibly been staged better...

According to Jim Bowden the new stadium will still be a slight pitcher's park. Mark Teixeira would agree after being robbed of a sure home run late in the game. Still, its dimensions point to a more neutral park and should be nowhere near as extreme as RFK Stadium, which ranked 27th overall in run scoring in 2007 and as the WORST home run park in the majors according to ESPN.

Washington	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Zimmerman, 3B	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	.250

Ryan Zimmerman, last night's hero with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth, has a very promising future. He was a top 3rd baseman in the National League in 2006 at only 21 years old. One only needs to look at other players who possessed the skills to be above-average at such a young age to see that Zimmerman has the potential to be a very special player. Some current players who were full-timers at 21 include Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, and Miguel Cabrera.

Now at the age of 23 Zimmerman continues his growth into an All-Star third baseman and has the potential to post better power numbers in his new park. For an idea of how much his power numbers could improve, consider that his walk-off home run would not have left the park last year at RFK.

Taking a look at Zimmerman's hit chart from RFK in 2007 there are at least a dozen doubles and fly outs that could be home runs in the new park. With his park on his side, don't be surprised if Zimmerman hits 30 homers this year.

Spring Stats of the Day

A double pitcher edition of Stats of the Day for Sunday. After tonight I'll be switching to regular season stats as we look towards opening day.

Kansas City	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Greinke	6.0	7	1	1	0	5	0	4.50

Zack Greinke's career was nearly derailed in 2006 as he dealt with anxiety issues. Missing an entire year can be a big bump in the road for a young players, but Greinke picked up where he left off last year and will continue his path to growing into a quality major league pitcher.

With over 450 innings of experience pitching in the majors Greinke should be ready to combine his skills with experience and take another step forward this year. Last year Zack posted a career-high strikeout rate and and career-low ERA. He makes an excellent target for 150+ strikeouts, an ERA under 4.00, and possibly 15 wins in front of an improved Royals lineup.

Cleveland	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Westbrook	4.0	2	0	0	1	4	0	0.00

Jake Westbrook has had a perfect spring, giving up no runs in 18 innings and only giving up 7 hits. In those 18 innings he has posted 20 Ks and exhibited excellent control with only 5 BBs.

So what has gotten into Westbrook? There has been talk that at the end of last year that he added a new pitch which boosted his strikeout numbers, shown both this spring and last September when he struck out 31 batters in 37 innings. Westbrook is already a groundball pitcher, so if he can increase his strikeouts and rely less on a defense with plodders like Jhonny Peralta at SS he could be headed for a surprise year.

If this increase in strikeout is for real, expect Westbrook to have his best year since 2004 in front of a very good bullpen and offense. This is a sleeper you definitely want to take a shot on and he is owned in very few leagues.

Spring Stats of the Day

LA Dodgers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Billingsley	5.0	2	1	1	3	7	0	6.85

Chad Billingsley has been one of the names talked about this spring as a breakout candidate. He is being drafted in some mixed leagues as early as round 10, but how confident should we really be in his ability to post a breakout season?

Billingsley is a young pitcher still in his growth years. This will be his age 23 season and only his 2nd full year in the majors. Last year he transitioned from the bullpen to starting rotation, starting 20 games and pitching 147 innings. He posted a 3.31 ERA and 141 strikeouts, excellent numbers for sure. However, the real concern here is his control and a jump in major league innings. His BB/9 (walks per 9 innings) was 3.9 and he went from 90 innings in 2006 to 147 in 2007, not including the minor leagues.

Billingsley tends to take a lot of pitches to get through games, often reaching the 100 pitch mark by the 6th inning. Leaving the game in the 6th inning is going to result in less wins as he leaves the 7th through 9th up to the bullpen, although with Broxton and Saito this might be less of a concern. Overall, while Billingsley has posted good ERA and strikeouts, he is still a risk to have low win totals and a high WHIP. At only 23 years old he likely needs more time to straighten out his control issues and become a more efficient pitcher to experience a true breakout.

Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Hill, 2B	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	.432

Aaron Hill is still flying under the radar in many leagues even though he hit .291/.336/.459 with 17 HRs and 78 RBIs in 2007, great numbers for late round 2nd baseman. In his age 26 season he looks to improve on those numbers hitting behind Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas in the 6th slot.

Hill's power continues to surge in Florida this spring, where he is slugging .659. In 2008 he is capable of hitting up to 20 HR with a .300 average and even more RBIs this year. He won't be giving you the speed of more popular second basemen, but if you miss out on more hyped guys like Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks, look to Aaron Hill. He's likely to give you more power and RBIs than either of them at a much better price.

Spring Stats of the Day

Extra Reading
For some additional reading today, here's a good article that was shared with me yesterday on the subject of spring strikeout numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/spring-training-and-strikeouts/

Two different players from the same team with similar spring stats

Name R Weeks

Team MIL

BB 4

K 25

OBP .313

SLG .446

AVG .214

C Hart

MIL

3

24

.265

.453

.234

Most people know Rickie Weeks as a player with 20/20 upside, but a serious risk in batting average. Weeks hit just .235 last year and has averaged about 1 strikeout per game in his career. Luckily he also walks at a high rate, giving him plenty of opportunities to steal bases and score runs. Corey Hart is a player also capable of a 20/20 year, but one whom most expect to continue hitting over .280 due to decent contact skills in the past.

So why is Cory Hart striking out as much as Rickie Weeks? Brewers manager Ned Yost offers some perspective at MLB.com:

The Brewers plan to use Corey Hart as the primary right fielder, but he led the club with 18 strikeouts this spring versus just one home run. Many of Hart's strikeouts were called, Yost noticed.

"He's not seeing the ball too good. [He] is thinking too much," said Yost, who insisted he's not concerned. "His history has been ... that he's really struggled at first and then really taken off."

Given Hart's history in the majors, I think this is just him getting into shape for the season. He has had short stints in his career where his strikeouts jumped up, but he was able to maintain a good level of production at those times. If most of his strikeouts are called this could simply be a spring umpiring issue as well. This shouldn't be a a concern heading into the season for Hart owners.

Cleveland's Closer in Waiting?

Cleveland	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Kobayashi (H, 5)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2.70

Nothing eye catching here, but Masahide Kobayashi is a player worth noting. Joe Borowski wasn't as bad as we all thought last year. In fact, without 2 early season meltdowns where he gave up a total of 10 runs in 1.1 innings to the Yankees and Athletics his ERA would have been a full run lower. Still, many people feel he is a shaky option in the Cleveland bullpen and draft Rafael Betancourt as a possible saves vulture. Betancourt is certainly a valuable pitcher to own, but Cleveland management prefers to keep him in a more versatile role where he can pitch higher leverage innings and not be relegated to merely 9th inning duties.

If you are looking for a hedge for saves in Cleveland you might be better off taking a look at Kobayashi, who saved 277 games in his career in Japan.