Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Stats of the Day

Happy opening day! It was definitely a wild one and anyone watching could tell you the big theme of the day: closer breakdowns. Let's take a look at the bigger imposions of the day.

PhiladelphiaIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Gordon (L, 0-1)0.1455100135.00

Tom Gordon is filling in with the 9th inning duties until Brad Lidge's projected return on Saturday. Anyone gambling with Gordon for a few cheap saves already knew what they were risking, but I don't think anybody expected this in the first game of the season.

Gordon was sidelined last year with shoulder issues and while he was reported to have recovered fully over the spring, an 88 mph fastball and 86mph changeup isn't going to throw hitters off very much.

If you were even considering holding onto Gordon, erase the thought from your head immediately. There is no reason to be risking your ERA and WHIP For an entire month simply to pick up one or two saves.

PittsburghIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Capps 0.223320040.50

Matt Capps emerged as one of the better closers in the league last year. He displayed excellent skills throughout the year and had good spring numbers as well. I don't see any warning signs here that could indicate something is wrong, his control simply wasn't there initially and Jason Bay made a poor defensive play that turned an out into an RBI single. Going 0 for 6 and botching plays in the field isn't the fastest way out of Pittsburgh, Mr. Bay.

Simply discount this outing from Capps as he should continue to be an excellent closer. His save totals might not be there in the end as the Pirates consider trading away more talent if they don't see any hope for this season. His other numbers, however, should be among the top for all closers.

Chi CubsIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Wood 1.023311027.00

This ninth inning was one for the ages, with Kerry Wood entering a scoreless game only to hit a batter, intentionally walk another, and then give up 2 hits before finally ending the inning. Woods velocity was very good in this out, but as was the case with other closers on Opening Day, his control was not. He threw 21 pitches total, 12 for strikes.

Bob Howry
ended up losing the game for the Cubs, while Carlos Marmol put up three strikeouts in just over an inning. This is a situation to keep an eye on, as it was all spring, but if Wood can rebound he has the skills to be an effective closer this season.

One aspect of closing that is often underrated by statheads is the "closer mentality" needed to come into the 9th inning with the game on the line and excel. This was not a save situation, and Wood even admitted his adrenaline was not there. As Wood gains more experience in this role and learns to harness the adrenaline needed to succeed he should succeed. If he can't figure that out, there are plenty of other options in the Cubs bullpen.

MilwaukeeIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Gagne (BS, 1)(W, 1-0)1.033311127.00

Eric Gagne, unlike Wood, has years of experience as a closer and a Cy Young under his belt. After 2 injury plagued seasons Gagne returns last year for a full workload. He put up excellent strikeout numbers last year, but also seemed hittable at times, especially for the Red Sox where he gave up 26 hits in 18.1 innings.

Gagne has spoken about his comfort level in the ninth inning and his ability to succeed there. Unlike Wood, Gagne appears to thrive on the adrenaline that comes when a game is on the line. Even though his skills aren't what they used to be and he certainly has effective enough stuff to close out games.

The problem in yesterday's outing was his inability to spot his fastball, a basic yet vital skill for a pitcher. Gagne gave up two hits and a walk on his fastball, including Kosuke Fukudome's home run. He did rebound to retire 3 of the next 4 batters, mostly with changeups and breaking balls.

Whether or not Gagne will regain his control remains a question mark as control problems are always an issue when past elbow injuries are involved. There are promising signs here, but it's not a bad idea to take a flyer on Guillermo Mota or David Riske if things don't work out.

Update 11:46AM: An article here notes that muddiness might have contributed to Gagne and Wood's spotty control

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