Monday, April 7, 2008

Stats of the Day: For Hoffman the Bell Tolls

Ah Mondays. The day I try to wrap up my blog as quickly as I can before work begins piling up on my desk. Onto the box scores...

San DiegoIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Bell 1.01000100.00
Hoffman (L, 0-2)1.011111012.27

Trevor Hoffman is up to two saves on the season, but they are surrounded by two that were blown. Yesterday's save chance was not actually much of a blowup, with a leadoff walk coming back to bite him. Giving up a walk and a single in an inning along with a strikeout and two groundouts certainly isn't a total failure, but the margin of error here was small.

Hoffman has had some early command issues which are natural at this time of year for a 41 year old pitcher. He was also pitching for the fourth time in six days, something he may not be capable of doing much this year.

Heath Bell is a great insurance policy and Hoffman should be getting more days off if he can't find some consistency when called into action frequently. Even if Hoffman does hold the job for the year, Bell could end up with ten or more save chances. He will be overvalued for now with Hoffman opening the season poorly, so if you've got him enjoy the ride and if you don't... well, just don't give up the farm to acquire a guy who may not be a full time closer this year. If Hoffman does eventually lose the role, expect Bell to emerge as a top-tier saves option.

MilwaukeeIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Sheets (W, 1-0)9.05000800.00

Ben Sheets has thrown 15 1/3 scoreless innings to start off the year, giving up only 7 hits to go along with 15 strikeouts. The skills have always been here, the real question is the risk involved.

It's the same old song and dance with sheets; we know if he can stay healthy he will put up Cy Young caliber numbers. This is a very good Brewers team behind him that will compete for the Central divison and should help him rack up wins as long as he pitches. This seems as good a year as any to target Sheets given the strong team behind him.

So how good can Sheets be? Take a look at his 2004 season and remember that while he isn't the young hurler he once was, he won't turn 30 until July. Sheets is still in his prime years, so the upside here is huge.

Speaking of 2004, take a look at the 2004 Cy Young leaderboards. How spoiled were we back then?

Kansas CityABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Butler, DH4130011.400

Billy Butler has been a star in many scouts eyes ever since being drafted in 2004 right out of high school. In only three years he advanced all the way through triple-A and made his major league debut last year hitting .292 with 8 home runs and 23 doubles in 329 ABs.

Butler will only turn 22 this year and is already a legit major league hitter. Anyone that can hit for average and power at this age has some great days ahead of him. This year, expect close to a .300 average and over 15 home runs, but in later years Butler could be an MVP-candidate type hitter.

Keeper leaguers should take note that Butler is limited enough defensively, even at his young age, that he is only taking up DH duties for this season. This may hurt roster flexibility, but other than David Ortiz there may not be a better hitter to clog up your DH spot with in coming years.

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