Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Stats of the Day: More Closer Woes

Great game to wrap up the NCAA tourney last night. Memphis really blew it in regulation and it was a really sloppy game all around, but it was fun to watch for a casual fan who would rather see the fast paced action opposed to foul shots all game.

There was a light schedule of games last night in MLB because of the tournament, but we are now in full-on regular season mode as the off days become less frequent.

PittsburghABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
McLouth, CF-LF6032110.441

I've put off featuring Nate McLouth for a few days, just to see if his streak would eventually come to an end. It hasn't. In fact, he's only gotten better with has hits in all seven games this season while leading off for the Pirates, five of those being multi-hit games.

McLouth ended up as a bench player due to a mix of injuries and poor performance in the past, oddly starting some games against lefties as a left-handed hitter. In fact, McLouth's career numbers are actually superior when facing southpaws, against whom he has hit .270 opposed to .254 against righties. Last year with more playing time he managed to hit 13 home runs and steal 22 bags to go along with a .258 average, pretty good numbers over only 329 ABs.

Finally given a shot at the center field job this spring, McLouth has seized the opportunity beginning with his first Opening Day start. Since then he hasn't let off the gas, hitting .441 and slugging an impressive .735. He is making good contact so far, only striking out four times in the seven games he has played. McLouth is an excellent mix of both power and speed, though he has had issues with making contact in the past and hits enough fly balls to partially nullify that speed and hurt his average a bit.

The .441 average obviously isn't sustainable, but the power and speed numbers will be there. If you were lucky enough to land McLouth at the end of the draft or via the waiver-wire, congrats. He should continue to put up good numbers, but unless this new found ability to make contact is for real (too small of a sample size to make any judgement here) then that average will likely end up in the .260 range again.

LA AngelsIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Rodriguez, F (BS, 1)0.12332008.10
Shields (W, 1-0)0.22001100.00

ClevelandIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Betancourt 1.02110118.10
Borowski (BS, 1)(L, 0-1)0.124420119.29

Another pair of blown saves in the same game, reminiscent of the Cubs/Brewers matchup on Opening Day. These two closers have slightly different concerns and not an entirely clear picture on who their backups may be.

Francisco Rodriguez has begun complaining about a sore ankle that he apparently has been coping with since last year. The reasons behind the Angels not renewing his contract are beginning to become more clear now, as his violent delivery seems to have begun to wear him down. There is some reason for optimism with this injury, as K-Rod's reported lost velocity has been more a conscious effort by the pitcher to put less stress on his body rather than any issues not being able to throw hard.

If K-Rod's injury does result in ineffectiveness or a DL stint, Scot Shields seems to be the choice to fill in for him as he has done in years past. Shields is coming off a poor year by his standards, putting up an ERA near 4.00 for the first time in his career. He is also coming off the DL for soreness in both his shoulder and forearm, which is a real concern. If this situation comes down to the healthiest pitcher, don't be surprised to see Justin Speier's name called in to close a few game. He becomes an excellent pickup in all leagues until this shakes out.

In Cleveland, Joe Borowski has been a favorite of many fantasy leaguer's to eventually lose his job ever since last year. Rafael Betancourt was likely in the top two middle relievers taken in most drafts, although he doesn't have a vast amount of experience in the closer role with only 12 total saves, compared to 17 blown saves. Other options here include Jorge Julio, Masahide Kobayashi, and possibly lefty Rafael Perez. The safest option remains Betancourt, but if you're desperate for saves the others might be worth speculating on.

Of course, that's all assuming Borowski will lose the job. He wasn't truly as bad last year as his ERA may have appeared, a flew blow ups where he allowed 4+ runs three times were a large cause and he didn't lose his job then. Also note that Borowski converted his other two save chances this season successfully and this doesn't look like a guy on the verge of losing his job. He will likely be given a long leash and will need to put together a series of bad outings before really being at risk.

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