Stats of the Day: Thinking About the Panic Button

It's far too early in the season to start hitting the panic button on a player, but sometimes trends point in the direction of concern.

Two pitchers who had some spring issues are Erik Bedard and Chad Billingsley. While Billingsley has been yanked around enough by Joe Torre that his issues are understandable, Bedard has been handled gently in hopes he will come around.

Seattle	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Bedard (W, 1-0)	6.0	5	5	3	4	5	2	3.27

Two more home runs allowed for Bedard to go along with continued spotty control. If you recall, Bedard struggled with the same issues in spring when he had a 10/8 K/BB ratio and gave up 9 home runs. Spring stats may not mean much, but they can certainly give off some warning signs.

Bedard was originally scratched from his start earlier this week with a hip injury, but was able to pitch in this game two days later. So far the Mariners are reporting there's nothing to worry about with Bedard, but the poor control and all those homers allowed point to something wrong with him.

Be on the lookout for injury news concerning Bedard and tread carefully in the early going. If he doesn't straighten things out in his next few starts, it's time to worry.

Also worth noting is Seattle's current bullpen situation. Yesterday, Ryan Rowland-Smith picked up the save in what has been a closer-by-committee approach so far in JJ Putz's absence. Personally I am avoiding this situation with a ten foot pole. I feel bad for the play-by-play guys having to call these games. "Ryan Rowland-Smith is on a roll, picking up his first save of the season!"

Arizona	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Reynolds, 3B	5	2	2	3	0	1	4	.344

Mark Reynolds becomes the major league leader in home runs and RBIs with a big night versus the Dodgers. Usually in cases of players off to hot starts like Reynolds I have to warn about uncharacteristically high contact rates or a lucky hit rate. The thing here is Reynolds is actually still striking out in over 28% of his ABs, but when he does make contact the ball is flying off his bat.

Reynolds batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .333, which is a bit high but the league average is right around .300. Last year Reynolds showed huge power potential and put up good slugging percentages all through the minors. He was very streaky in 2007, batting .426 in May, then .178 in June and July. He rebounded to hit .319 in August and September. This goes to show you that he can sustain these streaks for months at a time, but he will also go into prolonged slumps, something a 24 year old still developing consistency will be prone to.

There is always a risk of Reynolds losing some playing time if Chad Tracy comes back healthy and starts hitting during one of Reynolds' slumps, but for now hang onto him and don't hesitate to bench him if he hits a cold snap.

Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Hill, 2B	4	1	4	2	0	0	0	.444

Just a quick reminder to take a look at Aaron Hill. He is off to a good start in what could be a career year for him as he develops his power stroke.