Friday, April 4, 2008

Stats of the Day: Rookie Dominance

The theme of the week seems to be young and inexperienced pitchers having dominant starts. Johnny Cueto impressed more than anyone this week, allowing just 1 hit, a home run to Justin Upton, in his start against the Diamondbacks.

CincinnatiIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Cueto (W, 1-0)7.011101011.29

One of the most impressive parts about Johnny Cueto's start is that he struck out ten using almost only fastballs and sliders, topping out at 94 mph. It wasn't until the fifth inning that he started mixing in cutters and changeups.

Cueto was the most highly touted rookie pitcher in the offseason and he didn't fail to disappoint in his first start. As his rotation spot became more solidified he quickly went from an end-of-draft bargain to a guy going in the middle rounds.

Can Cueto keep up this performance all season? The skills here are evident, but he has only pitched a total of 83 career innings above single-A ball. At only twenty-two years old it's easy to fall in love with a pitcher like this before seeing any chinks in his armor. Cueto is simply too young and inexperienced to remain this dominant throughout the season. Major leaguers will eventually figure him out.

The other issue at play is his home ballpark. He allowed few home runs in the minors and only one in 17.2 innings of spring training, but he is a slight flyball pitcher and that won't play well at home. If Cueto can continue getting strikeouts at a good rate and maintain his control the home runs won't hurt too badly, but control is something that likely won't be consistent for a young pitcher. Know that Cueto is still a slight risk at Great American Ballpark, but that his upside is huge. He is good enough to be an above-average fantasy starter this year. Even with this dominant start, expect a best-case ERA of 3.60 and likely closer to 4.00.


San DiegoABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Hairston, CF3230100.400

Scott Hairston has given glimpses of his power potential in the past. Last year between San Diego and Arizona he slugged .452 while hitting 11 home runs and 18 doubles. He is a bit of a risk in batting average hitting only .248 in his major league career and at 27 years old there isn't going to be a lot of growth here.

The positives are that Hairston has excellent pop and doesn't strikeout too badly while keeping his walks up, putting up 55/26 K/BB last year. As long as he is making decent contact and taking walks Hairston could outperform his career average if given the chance.

Petco Park may not be the most cooperative place for a guy with only one skill you really want: power. He has started out the season hot though, with 6 hits in 15 ABs, 4 of those for extra bases. Definitely worth a look as a reserve outfielder if you are desperate for power, but expect more than a few 0-for-4 days too.

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