Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Stats of the Day: Sleepers Getting It Done

This is the time of year when former sleepers begin hitting waiver wires. We all want the guy we picked to blow up right out of the gate, but if you did that last year you would have missed out a guy like Dustin Pedroia, who turned in a great year. Of course, for every Dustin Pedroia there is a Josh Barfield. Just remember to look deeper than the surface stats to see if guys are hitting poorly or just getting unlucky before cutting them.

CincinnatiABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Encarnacion, 3B4022003.298

Edwin Encarnacion found himself being cut heavily early on in the year after hitting .083 through April 8th, but he has turned it on and is hitting .371 since. He's also racking up doubles and home runs, with another two doubles yesterday. Is this the breakout we've been expecting for so long?

Edwin is hitting for power and making great contact with a 13/13 K/BB ratio. If this plate discipline he's displaying is for real he definitely has the power and ballpark to keep things going strong. He will certainly have plenty of RBI opportunities with Adam Dunn's high OBP in front of him in the lineup if he sticks in the fifth spot.

Topping out at 16 home runs in his career, this could finally be the year Edwin busts out and hits 25 or more. He's now 25 years old and if Dusty Baker truly believes in him as much as he seems to then you can expect big things this year.


Chi White SoxABRHRBIBBSOLOBAVG
Quentin, LF4131100.312

Carlos Quentin was more of a deep sleeper this year as he fought through spring for a starting job. However, an injury to Jerry Owens has apparently opened the eyes of the White Sox and fantasy owners alike and Quentin may not be giving up this job anytime soon.

The tandem of Chris Young and Carlos Quentin were favorite sleepers for a few years in Arizona. Now Young has established himself as a regular player, but it apparently took a trade after some injury plagued years for Quentin to start hitting.

Still only 24 years old, Quentin has a good minor league track record, hitting 21 homers in 2005 in AAA along with a .300 average. Throughout his career in the minors he kept his K/BB ratio pretty even, walking as often as he struck out. He's obviously got a good batting eye and some power potential, and with that comes the upside for a solid batting average.

If Quentin does slump at some point in the year the White Sox have other options in the OF, so he needs to continue hitting to establish himself now. I wouldn't be hesitant to sell high on him because of this, but I think he will be a valuable player throughout the year as he comes of age. He has the track record in the minors and solid skills to succeed in the majors and now he has a full time job.

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